Saturday 21 November 2015

What is happening to the Green Bay Packers?: Part 1 - Defense


The Green Bay Packers have been one of the premier franchises in the NFC for what seems like forever. They have also been one of the best teams offensively since Arron Rodgers settled into the Starting QB role. However, they are currently sat 2nd in the NFC North with a 6-3 record following 3 Straight losses. This team has been struggling for a while, but Arron Rodgers has been keeping them alive, but this can’t last forever. So today, instead of looking at a key play from 1 game, I will look at some Key plays for the Green Bay over this last few weeks, picking out the plays that show why Rodgers COULD carry them into the play-offs and why they MIGHT eventually fall short without any improvements.

It would be easy to point to the Defence for the Packers problems. Sitting 23rd in Yards, 21st against the Pass and 24th against the Run. But Points is how we score the games, and they are currently the 12th best Defence in the NFL in Points per Game. These number don’t lie. Their Defence sucks in the open field. They rely on the shortening of the field to help them defend in the Redzone. We can see this Redzone Defence at its best in the Lions game this week.

The Lions are driving down the field with relative ease. Until the get close to the Redzone.

This is the 3rd and 9 play on the Packers 23.
 
 
 
As you can see, The Lions are spread out in a 3x1 formation. Packers are in a Pass Rushing look. They have earnt themselves a passing down and are about to take full advantage. The Deep Pass just isn’t on for the Lions. The 2 High Shell takes away any chance of Fades outside. And there is not space over the top. The Only chance they have is a Post to split the Safeties…
The Offense has called a play that looks like there is only one option for the QB pre-snap. And it’s that Post route we were talking about earlier. It looks like those out breaking Routes by the Wide-Outs will be doubled up by the Corners and Safeties. Leaving the Slot 1 on 1 over the middle. Let’s see how this plays out.
 
What Green Bay actually do, is get real aggressive. Blitz hard and play some Man cover 1 in behind. That Post is now no longer on as you have the 1 Safety play man on the Slot receiver and the other playing the deep middle.


Stafford doesn’t work out the coverage quickly enough and tries to fit the ball into a tiny window. This never going to work with one defender cutting under the route and the other attacking from on High. This play ends with a Pick by the player in man coverage and the Lions walking away with Zero points after rolling down the field with ease.

This is all well and good, playing good Redzone Defence. But you keep giving teams opportunities to score and you asking for trouble. It only takes a game like that against the Panthers, and a team that you should be keeping in check can turn around and score 30+ points. The Panthers had 7 Offensive drives in the 1st Half of that game. Only 1 ended outside of FG range and 2 Redzone TDs for the Panthers, who scored 27 points in that Half. This play from the Panthers game is what I mean about soft open field Defence.

We find the Panthers on 3rd and 16 deep inside their own half of the field. This should be Christmas for a defence. You want to make the Offence make a quality play to even get close to a 1st down.

As you can see, the Panthers are in a type of Empty set (no RB in the backfield) trying to spread the Packers out. Green Bay have 4 players looking like they are going to rush the passer. That leaves 7 Defenders to cover 5 Receivers. So the Packers aren’t exactly leaving themselves shorthanded on the backend.


Panthers, knowing they need a lot of yards have gone for a Vertical play call. A deep out at the 1st Down marker (1st Down line shown in Yellow) and a Switch combination with the Stack at the bottom of the picture. The 2 ‘wingback’ TEs are the dump down options. These are key for most 3rd and long plays as most Offenses are looking to get at least some yards on the play, even if they can’t push the ball deep for the 1st down.


Green Bay’s Defence is pretty much a Standard 3rd and long call for the area of the field they are in. Don’t want to be too aggressive and risk a Blown Coverage. So you break out a more passive, containing play that respects that the O will look deep down field while also keeping an eye on a mobile QB and any check downs.

I feel they have gone a bit too soft upfront, dropping a DL man into a Spy/Rat style zone. But it shouldn’t affect the play too much. The Cover 3 they are running behind it is the perfect coverage. 3 Deep routes against 3 Deep Zones, and 4 underneath zones that are going to stretch all the way back to the 1st down marker. Panthers shouldn’t have a chance.

So let’s see how the play develops.


Here we see where the play goes wrong. The players running the Hook/Curl Zones (the middle 2 underneath zones in a Cover 3) have rightly let the Vertical route working over the middle go, thinking their Safety in the Deep Middle Zone has them covered. And to be fair to them, he should. But his eyes are on the Receiver running deep against the Corner at the bottom of the picture.

This lets that opens up the whole middle of the field for Seam/Post route to exploit. Panthers QB, Cam Newton, takes a while to release the ball, which gives the Safety time to spot his mistake, but not enough time to recover…


Ending with a catch passed the 1st marker and room to run. This play goes from being 3rd and 19 on the Panthers 26, to 1st and 10 on the Green Bay 15. 2 plays later, the drive ends in a Touchdown. Green Bay went from having a chance to get the ball back with OK field position, to conceding 7 points in 3 plays. You can’t afford to do that against the better teams and get away with it.

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