What is happening to the Green Bay Packers?: Part 2 - Offense

The Offense… well, what can I say. If it wasn’t for Arron Rodgers, this team wouldn’t even be in with a shout of making the play-offs right now. But his play alone isn’t enough. The Panthers game is a great example of this. Rodgers seemed to be on the run the whole game. They still managed to keep up with really a mis-matched Panthers offence. Thought probably the game deciding play shows why you can’t live on the run as a QB in the NFL.

Green Bay have worked themselves all the way back from 7-27 at HT, to having a chance to take the game to OT. Its 4th and 4 at the Panthers Goaline.

Packers come out in a Gun look with 2 backs, a ‘Wingback’ and 2 wide-outs. To the Top of the Picture we have a normal slant, towards the bottom we have a Pick play with the Wide-outs slant working as a block for the motioning Wingback to come open on the Flat route. Both Running backs are in Pass Pro with the one having a middle release.

Rodgers makes his 1^st read to the Pick play. Panthers have sniffed it out pretty well. Now they are forcing Rodgers to make a second read behind an OLine that has struggled all game.

Just a second later, this is what we are seeing. Rodgers is on the move in the Pocket with nowhere to go with the ball and pressure on him.

Rodgers has backed off and bought himself enough time to spot one of the 2 open WRs after 2 Panthers fall down. Though because of the pressure coming from the Panthers, Rodgers is throwing off the back foot. This is a recipe for disaster.

The throw doesn’t even have enough on it to clear a straggling pass rusher. It ends up getting picked. No amount of arm strength will save Rodgers and Green Bay from this happening more often, just ask rivals Jay Cutler and the Bears.

They can’t even lead on the Run as they just can’t seem to get a consistent running game going either. Neither Lacy nor Starks are having much sustained success, though Stark has been having a better run of it compared to the hampered Lacy. This lack of production isn’t because of the talent in the backfield. And it’s the same reason why Rodgers is under duress on a regular basis. The Offensive Line is struggling, A LOT!

They played the Lions last week, who had the 4^th Worst Run Defence in the NFL. Yet Green Bay only managed 47 Yards collectively on the ground with only 18 rush attempts compared to 61 Pass attempts. You aren’t winning many games with that type of Run:Pass Ratio in the NFL.

 

 

I will now show you the opening 3 running plays by the Packers, as I believe early running plays should set the tone for your Offense.

Run 1: Firstly, It says something that your 1^st run play you call isn’t until the 5 play of your opening drive. But here we are 2^nd and 6 on the GB 43 (Note: ball is close to midfield, a very safe area of the field. Like Green Bay didn’t want to risk running the ball deep in their own half early).

 

 

Packers are lined up in the Gun with the RB to the Right and a TE to the Right as well. They find themselves facing a light box, the Lions have only 6 playing the run against the 6 blockers. This suggests the Packers are onto a winner.

 

This is the play they have drawing up. The blocking will go something like drawn above. Double Teaming at the LOS then trying to get quickly to any flowing LBs at the second level. Starks is trying to get to the outside here and force one of the Safeties to make a tackle.

All that above, like all draw-up blocking schemes, is if the OL wins every block. In this case the Lion in the middle of the picture has basically beaten the block of the RT. Making Starks have to make a choice, either stick with the play and try and beat him to the edge, or Cut back and let the RT run him out of the play.

Starks cuts back. However more missed blocks means, instead of running into just a Safety. There are 3 free Lions to make the tackle. This play ends as a nice 5 yard gain. Though looking at it from behind, focusing on the blockers, you can see this should have gone for at least a few more yards.

Run 2: The next play just so happens to be a Run as well. 3^rd and 1…

Packers start off showing an Empty set. Lions are is a pass rushing look. Widening their DL looking to get after Rodgers. Though you can see Rodgers calling for a motion.

Once Starks gets into the back field, and settles down to the left of Rodgers, this is how the blocking is supposed to look like. As you may have noticed, the Blocking is going the wrong way. But there is still a Lane for Starks to get the 1 Yard he needs for the 1^st down.

Again, the blocking turns into a bit of a mess. The 2 inside LBs bite hard to the right, opening up a huge cutback lane for Starks to get into the Secondary again.

Starks ends up running into his own man, #75 as he had been pushed into the running lane. This gives the DE to come all the way across and make the tackle. 2 Yard gain that once again, should have been more.

Run 3: We don’t see another run play until the second play of the second drive. Its 2^nd and 10 on the GB 39.

Packers are in the Gun again, with Starks to the left of Rodgers. Blocking upfront is pretty safe and not really asking too much. Double Team at the point of attack, with a blocker peeling off to get to the only LB in the box. This should be a run straight to the Secondary. To either the Left or Right of the Double Team.

As the play develops. Starks is led by the handoff towards the Inside hole. The Lane is right there, and a wide as any you’ll see, but unfortunately it doesn’t stay that way…

The RG loses his block after the Center peeled up towards the LB, even then the Center doesn’t drive the LB back. Add to that, the LG loses his block on the backside. This leaves Starks penned in. This end in just a 2 Yard gain.

All 3 plays were limited by missed blocks against one of the worst Run Defences in the league who weren’t exactly keying on the run.

When you’re not blocking well upfront. Life is never going to be easy. But it’s effecting Rodgers and the Packers more than some other teams because of the way Green Bay like to move the ball. For years we have been watching Rodgers dive the ball Deep or Push the ball vertically through the Seams to the Receivers that he trusts and has ‘Connections’ with. Now he doesn’t have the time to let these plays develop nor the chemistry with some of the younger players. Add that to Zero Running game, which limits the effectiveness of the Play Action. You are left with a short passing game. And that is how the Lions beat Green Bay on Sunday. Not by being the better team, but by taking advantage of reduced the play calling options. It became obvious that the Lions had keyed in on this as the Game went on. And teams will continue to do so until something changes.

What is happening to the Green Bay Packers?: Part 1 - Defense

The Green Bay Packers have been one of the premier franchises in the NFC for what seems like forever. They have also been one of the best teams offensively since Arron Rodgers settled into the Starting QB role. However, they are currently sat 2^nd in the NFC North with a 6-3 record following 3 Straight losses. This team has been struggling for a while, but Arron Rodgers has been keeping them alive, but this can’t last forever. So today, instead of looking at a key play from 1 game, I will look at some Key plays for the Green Bay over this last few weeks, picking out the plays that show why Rodgers COULD carry them into the play-offs and why they MIGHT eventually fall short without any improvements.

It would be easy to point to the Defence for the Packers problems. Sitting 23^rd in Yards, 21^st against the Pass and 24^th against the Run. But Points is how we score the games, and they are currently the 12^th best Defence in the NFL in Points per Game. These number don’t lie. Their Defence sucks in the open field. They rely on the shortening of the field to help them defend in the Redzone. We can see this Redzone Defence at its best in the Lions game this week.

The Lions are driving down the field with relative ease. Until the get close to the Redzone.

This is the 3^rd and 9 play on the Packers 23.

 

 

 

As you can see, The Lions are spread out in a 3x1 formation. Packers are in a Pass Rushing look. They have earnt themselves a passing down and are about to take full advantage. The Deep Pass just isn’t on for the Lions. The 2 High Shell takes away any chance of Fades outside. And there is not space over the top. The Only chance they have is a Post to split the Safeties…

The Offense has called a play that looks like there is only one option for the QB pre-snap. And it’s that Post route we were talking about earlier. It looks like those out breaking Routes by the Wide-Outs will be doubled up by the Corners and Safeties. Leaving the Slot 1 on 1 over the middle. Let’s see how this plays out.

 

What Green Bay actually do, is get real aggressive. Blitz hard and play some Man cover 1 in behind. That Post is now no longer on as you have the 1 Safety play man on the Slot receiver and the other playing the deep middle.

Stafford doesn’t work out the coverage quickly enough and tries to fit the ball into a tiny window. This never going to work with one defender cutting under the route and the other attacking from on High. This play ends with a Pick by the player in man coverage and the Lions walking away with Zero points after rolling down the field with ease.

This is all well and good, playing good Redzone Defence. But you keep giving teams opportunities to score and you asking for trouble. It only takes a game like that against the Panthers, and a team that you should be keeping in check can turn around and score 30+ points. The Panthers had 7 Offensive drives in the 1^st Half of that game. Only 1 ended outside of FG range and 2 Redzone TDs for the Panthers, who scored 27 points in that Half. This play from the Panthers game is what I mean about soft open field Defence.

We find the Panthers on 3^rd and 16 deep inside their own half of the field. This should be Christmas for a defence. You want to make the Offence make a quality play to even get close to a 1^st down.

As you can see, the Panthers are in a type of Empty set (no RB in the backfield) trying to spread the Packers out. Green Bay have 4 players looking like they are going to rush the passer. That leaves 7 Defenders to cover 5 Receivers. So the Packers aren’t exactly leaving themselves shorthanded on the backend.

Panthers, knowing they need a lot of yards have gone for a Vertical play call. A deep out at the 1^st Down marker (1^st Down line shown in Yellow) and a Switch combination with the Stack at the bottom of the picture. The 2 ‘wingback’ TEs are the dump down options. These are key for most 3^rd and long plays as most Offenses are looking to get at least some yards on the play, even if they can’t push the ball deep for the 1^st down.

Green Bay’s Defence is pretty much a Standard 3^rd and long call for the area of the field they are in. Don’t want to be too aggressive and risk a Blown Coverage. So you break out a more passive, containing play that respects that the O will look deep down field while also keeping an eye on a mobile QB and any check downs.

I feel they have gone a bit too soft upfront, dropping a DL man into a Spy/Rat style zone. But it shouldn’t affect the play too much. The Cover 3 they are running behind it is the perfect coverage. 3 Deep routes against 3 Deep Zones, and 4 underneath zones that are going to stretch all the way back to the 1^st down marker. Panthers shouldn’t have a chance.

So let’s see how the play develops.

Here we see where the play goes wrong. The players running the Hook/Curl Zones (the middle 2 underneath zones in a Cover 3) have rightly let the Vertical route working over the middle go, thinking their Safety in the Deep Middle Zone has them covered. And to be fair to them, he should. But his eyes are on the Receiver running deep against the Corner at the bottom of the picture.

This lets that opens up the whole middle of the field for Seam/Post route to exploit. Panthers QB, Cam Newton, takes a while to release the ball, which gives the Safety time to spot his mistake, but not enough time to recover…

Ending with a catch passed the 1^st marker and room to run. This play goes from being 3^rd and 19 on the Panthers 26, to 1^st and 10 on the Green Bay 15. 2 plays later, the drive ends in a Touchdown. Green Bay went from having a chance to get the ball back with OK field position, to conceding 7 points in 3 plays. You can’t afford to do that against the better teams and get away with it.